How Leagues Would Look if Done for 2023-2024 Season
- Michael McKernan
- Aug 6, 2023
- 6 min read
Scroll down to the bottom to see each league's makeup if done for the 2023-2024 Season. But first...
The Simulation Model:
To create the Simulation model that will be used, I used the AP Final Polls for the last 8 years (which can be seen through this website: https://www.espn.com/college-football/rankings). I used a point based system to reward high rankings. A 1st Place ranking net teams 40 points, 2nd Place 39 points, 3rd Place 38 points and so on. Most AP rankings (when including the others receiving votes had roughly 36 teams. In order to avoid bias I chose the best Coaches Poll finishers to fill the remaining spots which got every year to 40 teams except 2021 (for whatever reason) which only had 35 teams. Teams that were not ranked at the end of the year received 0 points (whether they were 7-6 or 1-11). The results were the most heavily weighed of the elements. Any team that was never ranked in 8 years received -20 points.
Next I took the average attendance (based off of this website: https://www.d1ticker.com/2022-fbs-attendance-trends/) for last year. Initially, I was going to choose the 5 year average but with Covid affecting stadium capacities and different states having different rules I choose to just use last year's numbers (as all Covid procedures have been removed at this point).
Most of what is happening right now in the college football landscape revolves around money so I was sure to include game attendance as a factor. A team like Nebraska (not to pick on Nebraska) who has underperformed in the last 8 years gets a boost because of their dedicated fanbase.
Lastly I took the team value (based off of this website: https://graphics.wsj.com/table/NCAA_2019) by ranking each team by their place on this list. 140 points for 1st. 138 points for 2nd. 136 points for 3rd and so on for the top 70 teams. Any team outside the top 70 was given -20 points.
Those with no score did not make the top 70 in any of the three categories. For the FBS schools, their order was based off of their win total in the last 3 non-Covid years and attendance.
I put all FBS schools ahead of FCS schools. For FCS teams, I took the 2022 Coaches Poll results first (, then every team that had at least 6 wins, and then filled the final bit from Coaches Poll results of the last 2 non-Covid years.
For a breakdown of each individual category:
Here are the Final Results (with their Score):
Alabama 500181
Ohio State 496263
Clemson 431694
Georgia 421746
Oklahoma 420435
Michigan 390046
Notre Dame 385593
LSU 363396
Penn State 345579
Florida 311180
Wisconsin 291959
Texas 284242
Iowa 282450
Washington 280733
Texas A&M 271813
USC 267687
Tennessee 265932
Auburn 259403
Oklahoma State 249135
Oregon 247950
Utah 245657
Michigan State 233447
Florida State 218854
TCU 203162
Ole Miss 192175
Stanford 183765
South Carolina 183385
Arkansas 180155
Nebraska 178037
Miss State 173222
Kentucky 170289
Virginia Tech 166556
Miami FL 164964
Minnesota 161619
Northwestern 158097
Kansas State 155965
Baylor 154263
Iowa State 151544
NC State 145924
North Carolina 137333
BYU 136074
Cincinnati 133117
UCF 131942
Pittsburgh 129910
Boise State 129321
UCLA 127393
Texas Tech 120070
Arizona State 116481
Indiana 113706
Colorado 113047
Washington State 112785
Louisville 103292
West Virginia 99858
Purdue 98929
Georgia Tech 97408
California 87996
Syracuse 86428
Army 85647
Appalachian State 83566
Missouri 82525
Fresno State 82067
Navy 81165
Virginia 78881
Oregon State 77898
San Diego State 77892
Air Force 76926
Illinois 74848
USF 74450
Houston 72394
Wake Forest 70853
Kansas 67876
Memphis 63196
Maryland 62934
Arizona 56409
Louisiana 54542
Duke 52505
Troy 50346
Coastal Carolina 39114
Utah State 38954
Tulane 38361
UTSA 37835
Rutgers 36356
UAB 34058
Florida Atlantic 31679
Liberty 30954
Western Kentucky 30440
Boston College 28306
Western Michigan 27260
Tulsa 24745
Vanderbilt 23193
San Jose State 19422
SMU 18971
Marshall 17842
Buffalo 17510
Toledo 16557
Ball State 15637
Temple 11277
Georgia Southern 8379
Nevada 7905
Ohio 6692
Louisiana Tech 6082
East Carolina 5649
Connecticut 3495
James Madison
Wyoming
Georgia State
Eastern Michigan
Middle Tennessee
Hawaii
Miami OH
Central Michigan
Colorado State
Southern Miss
UNLV
Old Dominion
UTEP
North Texas
Rice
Texas State
South Alabama
Arkansas State
New Mexico State
New Mexico
Louisiana Monroe
Kent State
Bowling Green
Akron
Charlotte
Massachusetts
Northern Illinois
FIU
Jacksonville State
Sam Houston State
South Dakota State
North Dakota State
Incarnate Word
Sacramento State
Montana State
Holy Cross
Samford
William & Mary
Weber State
Furman
Jackson State
Richmond
SE Missouri State
Montana
New Hampshire
Fordham
NC Central
Elon
SE Louisiana
St. Thomas - MN
Mercer
Idaho
Florida A&M
Delaware
Chattanooga
North Dakota
Gardner-Webb
Yale
UT Martin
Austin Peay
Princeton
UC Davis
Stephen F Austin
St. Francis PA
Penn
North Carolina A&T
Youngstown State
Eastern Kentucky
Rhode Island
Towson
Villanova
Harvard
Columbia
Northern Iowa
Illinois State
Merrimack
Lindenwood
Davidson
Dayton
Butler
Western Carolina
Alabama State
Southern
Prairie View A&M
Abilene Christian
East Tennessee State
Southern Illinois
South Dakota
Dartmouth
Sacred Heart
South Carolina State
Nicholls
Wofford
Albany
Central Connecticut
League 1:
South - East | Midwest - West |
Alabama | Ohio State |
Clemson | Michigan |
Georgia | Notre Dame |
LSU | Penn State |
Florida | Wisconsin |
Texas | Iowa |
Texas A&M | Washington |
Tennessee | USC |
Auburn | Oregon |
Oklahoma State | Utah |
Oklahoma | Michigan State |
Sample Schedules:
Alabama Crimson Tide:
(Preserved Rivalries: Auburn, Tennessee, LSU)
Non Division: Ole Miss
@ Texas A&M
Tennessee
Oklahoma State
@ Oklahoma
Clemson
@ Georgia
LSU
Florida
@ Texas
Non Division: Mercer
@ Auburn
Ohio State Buckeyes:
(Preserved Rivalries: Michigan, Penn State, Illinois)
Non Division: Illinois
Non Division: Kent State
@ Iowa
@Wisconsin
Oregon
@ USC
Michigan State
@ Utah
Penn State
@ Notre Dame
Washington
Michigan
Based off of the Final College Football Rankings of 2022/Best Record, this would be the playoff, bowl games and Relegation Matchups:
Playoffs:
Winners Championship Winners
Ohio State (#2 MW) vs. Tennessee (#3 SE) Alabama (#2 SE) vs. Utah (#3 MW)
Bowl Games:
Penn State vs. LSU
Washington vs. Texas
Oregon vs. Oklahoma State
Notre Dame vs. Florida
Iowa vs. Oklahoma
Relegation Games:
Midwest/West: Wisconsin vs. Michigan State
South/East: Auburn vs. Texas A&M
League 2:
East | South | Midwest | West |
Virginia Tech | Florida State | TCU | Stanford |
Cincinnati | Ole Miss | Arkansas | BYU |
Pittsburgh | South Carolina | Nebraska | Boise State |
Indiana | Miss State | Minnesota | UCLA |
Appalachian State | Miami FL | Kansas State | Arizona State |
West Virginia | UCF | Baylor | Washington State |
Purdue | Georgia Tech | Iowa State | California |
Syracuse | Kentucky | Texas Tech | Fresno State |
Army | Louisville | Missouri | Oregon State |
Navy | NC State | Colorado | San Diego State |
Virginia | North Carolina | Northwestern | Air Force |
Sample Schedules:
TCU Horned Frogs:
(Preserved Rivalries: SMU, Baylor, Texas Tech)
Non-Division SMU
Non Division @ Texas
@ Northwestern
Minnesota
@ Kansas State
@ Iowa State
Texas Tech
@ Missouri
Nebraska
Arkansas
@ Colorado
Baylor
Florida State Seminoles:
(Preserved Rivalries: Florida, Miami FL, Clemson)
Non-Division USF
Non-Division @ Florida
@ South Carolina
UCF
Georgia Tech
@ North Carolina
Miss State
@ NC State
@ Ole Miss
Kentucky
Louisville
@ Miami FL
Based off of the Final College Football Rankings of 2022/AP Rankings/Best Final Record, this would be the playoff and Relegation Matchups:
Playoffs:
TCU (#1 M) vs. UCLA (#2 W) Pittsburgh (#1 E) vs. South Carolina (#2 S)
Winners Championship Winners
Oregon State (#1 W) vs. Kansas State (#2 M) Florida State (#1 S) vs. Purdue (#2 E)
Relegation Games:
East: Virginia vs. Virginia Tech
South: Georgia Tech vs. Miami FL
Midwest: Northwestern vs. Colorado
West: Stanford vs. Arizona State
League 3:
East | South | Midwest | West |
Wake Forest | USF | Illinois | Arizona |
Maryland | Louisiana | Ohio | Utah State |
Rutgers | Troy | Western Michigan | San Jose State |
Liberty | Coastal Carolina | Ball State | Nevada |
Boston College | Tulane | Miami OH | Wyoming |
Marshall | UAB | Eastern Michigan | Hawaii |
Buffalo | Florida Atlantic | Toledo | SMU |
Temple | Georgia Southern | Western Kentucky | Houston |
Connecticut | Louisiana Tech | Memphis | Kansas |
James Madison | Georgia State | Middle Tennessee State | UTSA |
Duke | East Carolina | Vanderbilt | Tulsa |
Sample Schedules:
Arizona Wildcats:
(Preserved Rivalries: Arizona State, New Mexico)
Non Division: New Mexico
Utah State
@ Wyoming
UTSA
@ Tulsa
@ Kansas
SMU
Hawaii
@ San Jose State
@ Houston
Nevada
Non Division: @ Arizona State
Marshall Thundering Hurd:
(Preserved Rivalries: Appalachian State, Ohio, West Virginia)
Non Division: Ohio
@ Wake Forest
Maryland
@ Rutgers
Liberty
Buffalo
@ Temple
@ Connecticut
James Madison
@ Duke
Boston College
Non Division: @ Appalachian State
Based off of the AP/Best Final Record, this would be the playoff and Relegation Matchups (2 wins were added for Power 5 schools when compiling records for relegation):
Playoffs:
Marshall (#1 E) vs. Wake Forest (#4 E)
East Championship
Maryland (#2 E) vs. Duke (#3 E)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tulane (#1 S) vs. East Carolina (#4 S)
South Championship
Troy (#2 S) vs. Coastal Carolina (#3 S)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Illinois (#1 M) vs. Eastern Michigan (#4 M)
Midwest Championship
Ohio (#2 M) vs. Western Kentucky (#3 M)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UTSA (#1 W) vs. Wyoming (#4 W)
West Championship
Houston (#2 W) vs. SMU (#3 W)
Relegation Games:
Connecticut (#8 E) vs. Temple (#11 E)
Losers East Relegation Matchup
Rutgers (#9 E) vs. Boston College (#10 E)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Florida Atlantic (#8 S) vs. USF (#11 S)
Losers South Relegation Matchup
Georgia State (#9 S) vs. Louisiana Tech (#10 S)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Memphis (#8 M) vs. Western Michigan (#11 M)
Losers Midwest Relegation Matchup
Miami OH (#9 M) vs. Ball State (#10 M)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Utah State (#8 W) vs. Nevada (#11 W)
Losers West Relegation Matchup
Tulsa (#9 W) vs. Hawaii (#10 W)
League 4:
East 1 | South 1 | Midwest 1 | West 1 |
Massachusetts | FIU | Kent State | UNLV |
Holy Cross | Jacksonville State | Bowling Green | South Dakota State |
New Hampshire | Florida A&M | Akron | North Dakota State |
Fordham | South Carolina State | Youngstown State | Sacramento State |
Yale | Furman | NC Central | Montana State |
Rhode Island | Wofford | Elon | Weber State |
Harvard | Mercer | Charlotte | Montana |
Merrimack | East Tennessee State | North Carolina A&T | Idaho |
Central Connecticut | Austin Peay | Davidson | North Dakota |
Dartmouth | Chattanooga | Western Carolina | UC Davis |
Sacred Heart | UT Martin | Gardner Webb | South Dakota |
East 2 | South 2 | Midwest 2 | West 2 |
William & Mary | Arkansas State | Illinois State | Colorado State |
Richmond | Samford | Butler | UTEP |
Old Dominion | South Alabama | Northern Illinois | North Texas |
Delaware | UL Monroe | Southern Illinois | Rice |
Towson | SE Louisiana | Northern Iowa | Texas State |
Villanova | Alabama State | St. Thomas MN | Sam Houston State |
St. Francis PA | Nicholls | SE Missouri State | Incarnate Word |
Penn | Stephen F. Austin | Lindenwood | Prairie View A&M |
Princeton | Jackson State | Central Michigan | Abilene Christian |
Columbia | Southern | Eastern Kentucky | New Mexico State |
Albany | Southern Miss | Dayton | New Mexico |
Sample Schedules:
Colorado State Rams:
(Preserved Rivalries: Colorado, Wyoming, Air Force)
Non Division: @ Colorado
Non Division: Wyoming
North Texas
@ Sam Houston State
@ Abilene Christian
New Mexico
@ Prairie View A&M
Texas State
@ Rice
@ New Mexico State
Incarnate Word
UTEP
North Dakota State Bison:
(Preserved Rivalries: North Dakota, South Dakota State, Northern Iowa)
Non Division: Northern Iowa
Non Division: @ Boise State
@ UC Davis
UNLV
Sacramento State
Montana State
@ Idaho
@ South Dakota
Montana
@ Weber State
South Dakota State
@ North Dakota
Based off of the Best Final Record/FCS Coaches Poll, this would be the playoff and Relegation Matchups (4 wins were added for FBS schools when compiling records for relegation/playoffs):
Playoffs:
Holy Cross (#1 E1) vs. Richmond (#2 E2)
East Championship
William & Mary (#1 E2) vs. New Hampshire (#2 E1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Jacksonville State (#1 S1) vs. Southern Miss (#2 S2)
South Championship
South Alabama (#1 S2) vs. Furman (#2 S1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bowling Green (#1 M1) vs. St. Thomas MN (#2 M2)
Midwest Championship
SE Missouri State (#1 M2) vs. NC Central (#2 M1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
South Dakota State (#1 W1) vs. North Texas (#2 W2)
West Championship
Incarnate Word (#1 W2) vs. North Dakota State (#2 W1)
Relegation Games:
Dartmouth (#10 E1) vs. UAlbany (#11 E2)
Losers East Relegation Matchup
Columbia (#10 E2) vs. Central Connecticut (#11 E1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
East Tennessee State (#10 S1) vs. Nicholls (#11 S2)
Losers South Relegation Matchup
Alabama State (#10 S2) vs. South Carolina State (#11 S1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Akron (#10 M1) vs. Southern Illinois (#11 M2)
Losers Midwest Relegation Matchup
Illinois State (#10 M2) vs. Western Carolina (#11 M1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
UC Davis (#10 W1) vs. Prairie View A&M (#11 W2)
Losers West Relegation Matchup
New Mexico (#10 W2) vs. South Dakota (#11 W1)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------